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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though analysts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.